Price Arbitrage: the wrong way round

It's not for the first time I notice a difference between prices for Tech in Nigeria and the UK. But usually it's high cost England that's MORE expensive than Nija, that has to import everything and does so to a large extent from the former imperialists.

So imagine my surprise when I found while trying to buy a phone recently that it was actually cheaper (GBP 388) to buy it through a local website than buying it both in LHR duty free (cost: GBP 480) and on Amazon.co.uk (GBP420). Incredible. I wouldn't usually write about this but to me it's a sign of something bigger. 

 

Phone on Jumina.com.ng

Phone on Amazon.co.uk

Price converted

The website that ended up selling the phone to me for Madam to use (although I doubt she has), ended up being Jumina the Nigerian arm of the German based Rocket Internet company, which prides itself on efficiency of executing internet start ups in difficult environments. They have over 200 now, most of them with similar business models that were originally copied from prominent Western examples (ebay clone, Amazon clone, stuff like that). 

What that shows me is that the path to improvement is not necessarily as long as people think. What's required is standard improvements in procedures that increase efficiency and raise the overall bar. The required initiative doesn't have to come from abroad, in fact what I've seen in the past few weeks in terms of local entrepreneurship at places such as the CCHub and amongst Angel funding communities makes me cautiously optimistic that we're at the start of a very exciting wave for tech startups in Nigeria.

Jumina meanwhile hasn't proved its staying power yet but it's a glimpse of the potential that's coming this way.

On being asked about Technology and Education

A friend recently asked me to send over some links about technology and education following the recent presentation I made on my experience at Singularity. The thought is - how can tech change education in Nigeria. The experience suggests its not hardware and the most exciting innovations are coming from Khan & Co. Thought it might be of interest to readers here:

Education:

• Huge innovation in education that we didn't talk about. In some US schools teachers now only supervise homework during school hours, and at home the kids watch the school classes from online sites such as Khan Academy. These kind of resources have true leapfrog potential as they allow anybody in the world to access the same content. 
• Of course you know about the failed One Laptop Per Child initiative (TED video)
• The founder of this project came to speak to us. I thought the approach very interesting - creating a flexible learning path for students using already available content (there's so much out there already!)
• HacKidemia - playful technology workshops for kids (get em early). We're bringing a temporary set of workshops to Nigeria around Maker Faire but will be looking to make this permanent there after (need funding/space - let us know if you can help!)

General:

• Maker Faire Africa, which will highlight African tech ingenuity in Lagos for the first time
• Most technology transfer is done through incubators/accelerators and the entrepreneurs they raise. Example of an incubator is CCHub in Yaba.
• There's a small but growing movement of tech angel investors in Nigeria. Nurturing entrepreneurs by providing support and finance is probably the most effective way to get local entrepreneurs to develop or import winning technologies. Ask me for more details if you wish.

Digesting Singularity

It's been a couple of months since I left my new home. Singularity was an amazing, life changing experience - one I wish for everybody alive.

In digesting what I've seen and heard a parting piece of advice from our GSP coordinator, David Roberts, stuck in my head.

"on arriving," he wrote "focus all your attention to understand their summer experience -- and resist the temptation to arrive home, bust in the door, and start first talking about how amazing YOUR summer was -- without them"

So I did, or rather tried to do. As a result I'm only just trying to publicly digest what I've gone through. My first attempt last night was targeted at some wonderful friends we meet with on Wednesday's to discuss things people are involved in. The presentation* was a partial success - I forgot how scared people (including me) are when they first hear about these innovations. So my plan - to make up for Singularity's biggest flaw, and to explore how these great new technologies can be applied to where they are needed most, didn't really work out. Instead we spent most of the time digesting what has happened.

Maybe that's where it's at though now. Shows what a seminal experience Singularity was that now, 2 months later, i still have no clue how to talk about it.




*(watch out, its meant for private consumption so I haven't sorted out the copyright issues)

Peju Alatise - Material Witness

Miss this at your peril!

It's not over

Today the government unilaterally announced a partial revocation of its previous fuel subsidy removal, as well as a few nominal concessions to tidying up government. It then put soldiers on the street to make sure nobody protested, shot in the air and fired teargas at protesters to keep them quiet, and temporarily closed down the CNN and BBC offices in Lagos. It had already paid off PENGASSAN, the oil union, not to go on strike as it had previously announced. The general labour unions first suspended street protests and then the strike in a climb down that did not represent the protesters feelings.

Though the totalitarian methods used surprised many, including governors, an ending with unfinished business was to be expected. The protests were of a scale never previously seen under a non-military government, and the awakening of a new, active, young, technologically savvy, middle class protesting group is likely the most important outcome. Discussions were ongoing about how this momentum could be preserved and used in the days ahead, right up to the next general election. There is certainly a lot for this group and others to work towards: Less corruption, better distribution of oil wealth, infrastructure investments, reduced government costs, better representation and reduced costs of living to name but a few. Groups like EIE and Save Nigeria are already uniquely positioned to carry on the protest movement, but others will have to be born to channel the energy.

Importantly the protest needs success: None of the demands expressed in the video below have been achieved. Citizens will now be watching with new found confidence whether the promises governments makes are implemented and sufficient. If our reforming instincts are met with even some success, then the protesters of today will be uniquely positioned to lead change through the 2015 elections.

A new dawn?

I'm way behind on this one, I have to apologize. In part I've been holding back, observing: This is not my battle no matter how much I support it. In part I am as surprised by the intensity of the battle as the politicians clearly are: The military got a pay rise, 24 hourcurfews are in place, salaries are being withdrawn for striking workers, some might even face the sack - the People in Power are worried: This no longer looks like a controlled "saving face" union action we had thought it to be.

The People in Power might well be worried. The subsidy removal is just the tip of a very big iceberg that has been growing for the last 50 years, and has only grown more rapidly since military rule ended. I hesitate to speak about the advent of democracy, because you can't really call it that if those elected into power fail to represent the people that did so. The social contract that ties government to tax paying citizens has long since vanished, washed away by oil money. It has left the life of the 99% a daily, basic, violent struggle for survival. 

Others can and have more eloquently described the ongoing battle for a better Nigeria. But in the face of the sacrifices some people have made for this cause I cannot be silent. While I seek more effective ways to support the protest, I have to at least try to make my voice heard and highlight others. Meanwhile I weep for every soul lost to the defense of their basic rights. The blatant murder of civilians, and the collective shrug which seems to have followed, is the real tragedy of this saga. 

What now? If all we come away with from this is a reduction in fuel prices, then the protesters will have lost. The real target is the leadership rot that got the country into this mess in the first place: 'We are not broke', say the protesters, paraphrasing the finance ministers's justification of the subsidy removal, 'we are mismanaged'. They demand a slashing of exorbitant government wages (MP's reportedly earn 12 TIMES what their highest paid European counterparts, the Italians, earn), an analysis of where the money's gone and punishments for those driving and those benefiting from the emptying of state coffers, and, more than anything, a clear and decisive plan to getting basic services up and running pronto.

But how is this to happen? Right now it's not clear: Unions are said to be paid off by governments, the Twitter elite can't carry the masses, and the intellectuals get caught up in "grammar". There doesn’t even seem to be a collective manifesto of demands, though some try. There is currently no uniting force, and so I fear the governments hold strategy will work in the end: Things will peter out for lack of leadership, in the face of adversity, attention diverted by another disaster, and driven by the sheer necessity to get back to work, to earn a few cents, to get some food. But maybe not, maybe the countries rightly enraged citizens can transform some of that anger into real change. Inspired by the Arab Spring, goaded by the ostentatious wealth that surrounds them, provoked by the violence and fear they encounter every day, maybe Nigerian’s can craft a better future for themselves. I certainly hope so. 

Fuel Subsidies

The removal of fuel subsidies seems to be the topic of choice here in Nigeria at the moment:

On one hand you have a huge drain on scarce national resources, a large portion of which goes directly into the pockets of a bunch of sleazy players through anything from round-tripping (docking the ship and the subsidy, only to take it out again and re-register it for import and another subsidy!) to black market retailing (pocketing the subsidy and withholding the delivery until scarcity drives black market prices up which are then cashed in on).

On the other hand cheap fuel is pretty much the only tangible benefit the man on the street gets from his government. Many of my friends fear a social revolution if its removed. Mark my words, they say; remarks which are echoed by nearly every civil society organization out there - from Unions to the Nigerian Bar Association. Everybody is against it, apparently.

Its a sad state of affairs that the government really provides so little. Maybe it could provide more if it didn't 'chop' all the money itself in the form or reoccurring expense. That is to say - if we do cancel the subsidy, would the government know what to do with the extra cash?

But lets look at it rationally: In reality nobody but the oil lobby actually seeks the continuation of fuel subsidies. They:

1. Waste an awful lot of money. The IEA and others estimate that USD 409bn were spent directly on consumption subsidies in 2010, not to mention the indirect subsidies such as tax cuts. The American example, and the corresponding support for renewable is beautifully embodied in the graph published by ELI.
2. Make fuel artificially cheap, which in turns makes the renewable alternatives seem artificially expensive. Thus, they also distract investments into renewables, which would increase if the business opportunity were even more apparent.
3. Drain a scarce resource. The OECD estimates that if the subsidy were removed by 2020 globally, then the global energy demand would drop 5% and oil demand would drop 4.7mb/d, or around 1/4 of the current US consumption. The IEA estimates even higher drops.
4. Increase environmental pollution. The OECD estimates that the proposed removal of global subsidies by 2020 would reduce carbon-oxide emissions by 2 gigatons, about 1/15 of total emissions in 2011.
5. Hardly ever reach the people they are meant to. The IMF estimates that only 1 in every 6 dollars of subsidy reaches the poor, the rest gets lost in sleaze. 

So, lets cut the subsidy and see what happens. Maybe less support from government will actually make it more accountable to the people. Who knows? My guess though is that Nigerians will maintain their resilient nature and battle on through. The original stiff upper lip.  XHK69U9FVEPU

Trips from Lagos

In the process of trying to persuade my family to come out here later this year, I was writing an email about where they should go when I figured I could do this in Google Maps. I'd seen it done but never been geeky enough myself. Well now I have: Quite easy really!

Below is the map, with highlighted descriptions of Lagos, Osogbo, Kano and Katsina Durbars, Calabar Area, Benin (country), and Ghana.

Given the limited guidebooks for the area (to my knowledge there's only one of any use), this might be quite an interesting project to continue. If you want to help de-personalize, detail and increase the list of places to go, let me know and I'll invite you.


View Trips from Lagos in a larger map

Lagos still Dark

There's growing controversy about a BBC2 show portraying life in Lagos (Welcome to Lagos, ends today), that invites you to a glimpse of the "most extreme urban environment". I haven't seen the thing myself, not having TV and being barred from BBC's Iplayer, but from the episode titles it doesnt look promising:

1. A look at life in the Olusosun rubbish dump, where about 1000 people live in scrap houses. 
2. A look at the lives of those who choose to live and work on the waters of Lagos Lagoon.
3. Following Esther, who lives in a scrap house on the beach in central Lagos.

Hold on, this feels like a we're back in "Heart of Darkness" age. I mean, I met the crew that was here at the time. They were staying in a cool guesthouse in the heart of posh Ikoyi, surrounded by art and music. They saw fun and laughter next to poverty and despair. Even if they chose to highlight the "resourcefulness, determination and creativity of those adapting to life" in Lagos, it feels like they missed their brief. Anybody who knows Lagos and Nigeria knows that there's more than pitiful locations of Makodi, Bar Beach, and Olusosun. Knows that there's a hunger and thirst for life the expresses itself in explicit acts of creativity that warrant a setting that reflects the attitude in a bolder way.

People look at the surface and even if the show reveals, as I hope to find when I get back home, a lighter side of life in the most pressing of circumstances, the choice to portray the least appealing of places in Lagos means that the producers have stuck to the old prejudices rather than sticking their head out and showing a new side of Africa that might actually change peoples stereotypes. I can only imagine that the final decision makers thought that would be too much for the home audiences to swallow. Opportunity missed.

I, and most of my Nigerian friends and colleagues, agree with Wole on this one. I thought that Said had managed to re-evaluate our conception of others, and helped others to overcome their own notion of self. Clearly the battle still rages strongly, maybe more strongly than ever as we near the World Cup in South Africa.

Men who stare at (fighting) goats

Well, Ram's actually. The annual National Ram Fighting competition, organized by the Ram Lover's Association of Nigeria, is currently in progress near the national stadium in Lagos. Very excited to have been a part of the Semi Finals, which saw the likes of AK47 take on Sledgehammer. Obama, the winner of the last two years, was not around any more. I've been told by the Grandfather of Ram Fighting that he has since been retired.

Ram fighting, when you see it, seems perfectly natural. There are no red colours or jeers to get the beasts excited. They see each other and want to run at each other; simple. The winner is the one who intimidates his opponent most - who then runs away. If he has not been able to do so for 40 headbangs, the match is a draw.

The finals are to be held on April 11th. The day will also see other traditional African sports. In discussion with the Grandfather it turns out that none of those sports, which include local varieties of wrestling and one-legged running, are conducted during the African Games, which see only Olympic disciplines. Seems to me that despite all the quirkiness of this particular events this kind of activity carries more significance if viewed in the general context of a threatened African culture.

 Ram's locking heads

Sledgehammer on the way to the court

Stewards of the Ram Lover's Association

UPDATE: Will published this piece in the Wall Street Journal.

Femi

High time I let Femi Kuti leave his mark on this site. I've been to the New Shrine a couple of times now (the dancers have got to be seen to be believed), and his latest grammy-nominated album has been on repeat in the car for a while. Gotta say that I though Seun, his younger half-brother, was stronger but he's blown it of late with poor performances, empty words and an arrogant attitude. Plus, Let's Make History (called Day by Day elsewhere) has really pulled through for me. Check out the intro on this:


(Artist: Femi Kuti; Title: Tell me; Album: Let's Make History [Nigeria])